Venice, often referred to as the “Floating City,” is renowned for its intricate canal systems, historic architecture, and rich cultural heritage. However, beneath its enchanting facade lies a pressing concern: the city’s ongoing battle against rising sea levels and land subsidence. As climate change accelerates, the question arises how long until Venice is submerged?
It’s hard to say exactly when, but if things keep going the way they are, Venice could be in serious trouble. Scientists warn that rising sea levels and the city’s sinking ground might cause parts of how long until venice is Underwater as early as 2100 or 2150.
Understanding Venice’s Predicament
The Dual Threat: Rising Sea Levels and Land Subsidence
Venice faces a unique combination of challenges:
- Rising Sea Levels: Global warming has led to the melting of polar ice caps and the thermal expansion of seawater, contributing to a steady rise in global sea levels.
- Land Subsidence: Historically, Venice has experienced subsidence due to natural geological processes and human activities, such as groundwater extraction. Although measures have been taken to reduce human-induced subsidence, the city continues to sink at a slow rate.
Current Rates of Change
Recent studies indicate that the relative sea level in the Venice Lagoon has been rising at an average rate of about 2.5 millimeters per year during the 20th century. However, this rate has increased in recent decades, and when local subsidence is also considered, the relative sea level could rise well above the global average.
Projections for the Future
According to a study by Italian scientists, some areas of Venice, including parts of Piazza San Marco, are projected to be permanently underwater by 2150. The west side of the city, which has experienced frequent flooding, is among the most vulnerable regions.
These projections underscore the urgency of addressing the factors contributing to Venice’s submersion risk.
Mitigation Efforts: The MOSE Project
In response to the escalating threat of flooding, Italy initiated the MOSE (Modulo Sperimentale Elettromeccanico) project. This ambitious endeavor involves a series of mobile flood barriers installed at the three inlets of the Venetian Lagoon: Lido, Malamocco, and Chioggia.
The barriers are designed to be raised during high tide events to prevent seawater from inundating the city. Since becoming operational in October 2020, the MOSE system has been effective in safeguarding Venice from “acqua alta” (high water) events.
However, the MOSE project is not without its challenges. Originally estimated to require activation five times per year, the barriers were raised 49 times within two years of operation, highlighting the increasing frequency of high tide events.
Additionally, concerns have been raised about the project’s environmental impact, including potential alterations to the lagoon’s sediment balance, which could affect local ecosystems.
The Role of Climate Change
Climate change plays a pivotal role in Venice’s predicament. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts a global sea-level rise of between 60 and 110 centimeters by 2100 if greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase. Such a rise would exacerbate the frequency and severity of flooding events in Venice, overwhelming existing defense mechanisms like the MOSE barriers.
Community and Policy Responses
Addressing Venice’s challenges requires a multifaceted approach:
- Sustainable Urban Planning: Implementing policies that limit groundwater extraction and manage tourism can help mitigate human-induced subsidence.
- Environmental Conservation: Protecting and restoring the lagoon’s natural ecosystems, such as marshes that absorb carbon and buffer against storm surges, is crucial.
- Global Climate Action: International efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions are essential to slow global sea-level rise and protect vulnerable coastal cities like Venice.
Conclusion
While projections indicate that parts of Venice could be permanently submerged by 2150, the timeline is influenced by various factors, including the rate of climate change, effectiveness of mitigation efforts, and natural geological processes. The MOSE project provides a temporary reprieve, but long-term solutions require global cooperation and sustainable practices. Preserving Venice’s cultural and historical heritage necessitates immediate and sustained action to address the underlying causes of its submersion risk.